I wanted to avoid a bitter, heat of the moment rant in the aftermath of yesterday's collapse. So I stewed on it for a while. Went out for some sushi with Tom Yu and did some reflecting.
If you want some actual professional analysis, I suggest this piece by Thomas Boswell which hits the nail on the head, in my view:
In Boswell's words: "In the end, this was not a game that the crowd controlled or the zebras distorted or the Hoyas squandered, though all those elements were needed for such a stunner. Above all, this was a game that glorious gunner Stephen Curry (30 points), one of the best long shooters of any generation, and his Davidson running mate Jason Richards (20 points) went out and ripped from the hands of a careless Hoyas team that let a potential blowout turn into the school's most alarming tournament defeat since losing the title game to Villanova in '85."
All true. But this one hit me hard. I still feel a sense of astonishment over the loss. Not only because it actually happened, but because it is was such an uncharacteristic way for the Hoyas to lose.
First, the team that beat the Hoyas was a shock. We lost to a vastly inferior team - on paper and on the floor. As the Post correctly points out, the Hoyas, in their history, had really been UPSET in the tournament only two times - 1985 and 1987. Say what you will about them, but the Hoyas generally don't lay an egg in the tournament, and I thought that had especially been the case under JT3. A loss to a 10th seeded team (whose team bus was a Land Rover) did not seem to mesh with the upwards trajectory that the program was on. We expected more - and not irrationally so. I was not expecting a Final Four run this year, but I also was not expecting a loss to LL Bean Outlet.
Second, the way they lost was shocking. The team, under JT3, had always been prepared, honest and hardworking. I felt they'd lose in the tourney this year eventually - but I KNEW that they would lose in a hard fought battle in which they would be outclassed and trailing pretty much from beginning to end. This was the case with ALL of their losses this year - the vast majority of them to equally stong teams, all of them away from home. NOT the case on Sunday. Sunday was a COLLAPSE, a loss of composure. A team that came unglued - a troubling loss that leaves you shaking your head in disappointment. We have seen losses, but this kind of loss is something we have not seen from this Hoyas team since the twilight days of JT2.
Though astonished at the way it went down, I have to admit that I am not completely surprised by the result. I wasn't overly optimistic heading into the tournament - the Hoyas played a bad game against Pitt last week to gear up for the tourney and something about Davidson just screamed cinderella story. Further, the fact that Davidson was essentially playing a home game and that Stephen Curry played off his ass against Gonzaga just made me feel queasy. I am not trying to set up an "I TOLD YOU SO.."….just filling you in on my state of mind heading into Sunday morning.
But then I got rational. I thought to myself - how would Bish analyze this game? And I really looked at the situation thoughtfully- the Hoyas had vastly superior size. Vastly superior athletes. Were MUCH deeper. And played in the toughest conference in the nation. They were certainly ready to take on the Southern Conference's version of 98 Degrees. Moreover - they were certainly ready to take on and contain someone the likes of Stephen Curry. Any number of Hoya guards could hang with him defensively - and more to the point - these Hoyas COULD NOT be defeated by a one man show. It's just not possible given their disciplined team defense, methodical style of play and the fact that they could throw a defensive rotatation of 3 if not 4 fresh guards at him throughout the course of the game. Someone else would need to step up for Team Izod and that was just not going to happen on a team whose tallest guy is 6'8" and white.
The only thing that worried me was that Davidson had perhaps the ONLY student section in the nation with a greater chinos to jeans ratio than the Hoyas student section….But that was just personally disturbing and hopefully would not have any direct impact on the game.
Lo and behold, the first 25 minutes of the game played out exactly according to form.
FIRST HALF STATS:
Hoyas
Princeton of the South
Stephen Curry
All in all, everything I thought about prior to the game was holding true. Curry was locked down, frustrated and throwing up prayers. The Hoyas were playing smart, disciplined, defensive basketball. The three pointers were falling - the result of a well run offense and, for the most part, smart, open shots - and all of this without ANY reliance on Hibbert down low. It was reminiscent of the Villanova win in the Big East Tourney. And I was feeling good.
It carried over into the second half. In the first 5 minutes, the Hoyas built the lead to 16 - and Curry missed his first 3 shots of the half. Hoyas were on cruise control and I was licking my chops for Wisconsin. Stinking Badgers. As a side note, my premature analysis of the Badgers was pretty favorable. I think of them and Bo Ryan's style as typically Big East. Something the Hoyas knew and did not fear. Many tournament teams would be frustrated by them and their stifling defense, but I thought the Hoyas would be up to the task. Certainly the Badgers would be a tough out, but no tougher than Louisville or Pitt. In short, we could beat them at their own game…. Needless to say, my mind was wandering.
Then something happened. I tried to trace it back to a single moment - or a single play. But it really isnt' possible. Was it the 4 point play by Curry that finally got him and the crowd into the game? Was it the 3-4 offensive fouls in a row that gave the frat boys with the high SAT scores new life? I don’t think it can be pinpointed….but whatever it was, it happened. And happened fast.
The next 10 minutes of basketball were probably the worst 10 minutes of Hoya basketball - OF MY LIFE. And the funny thing is I never really thought it was that bad. I imagine this is how you feel when you get very badly injured while off-your-ass drunk. You see the blood, you feel that something is wrong, but something in your mind is not working and in a strange way, it's all OK. It's almost as if I expected the J Crew Brigade to mount a charge and the Hoyas to almost allow it to happen…because that is what this team does. They don’t blow people away. Even UMBC only lost by 19. The Hoyas go on cruise control. Don’t run up the score. Make a lot of dumb passes. Get sloppy. Give up a lot of rebounds - BUT STAY AHEAD. Besides, the lead was 16! So what if it went down to 12…or 11….or 9….or 7…..or….wait a minute. BURN ONE JT3!!! Houston, we have a problem..
It was when the lead shrunk to about 7 (at the 10:07 mark of the second half) that I felt an uneasy feeling creep over me for the first time. I thought to myself…DAMN. We have not even TAKEN a shot in a REALLY long time. (This hunch is verified if you check the box score. Between 14:30 of the second half, when Hoyas led 48-33 and 9:18 of the second half, when Hoyas lead was cut to 50-46 and JT3 FINALLY burned one - the Hoyas were only credited with taking 2 SHOTS!, a missed 3 pointer by Ewing and a layup by Hibbert).
In fact between the 10 and 5 minute marks of the second half, Hoyas turned the ball over an astonishing 10 TIMES!
After this stretch, I felt the loss coming on. Hoyas were still ahead, but not for long. Within minutes our 17 point lead had become a 7 point deficit and it was dead man walking time.
The question is not only WHAT HAPPENED? But WHAT HAPPENED SO FAST?
Some post-mortem from the pundits holds a few answers. The smarmy Doug Gottlieb attributed the Hoyas' fall to the "TRIUMVERATE" (do you think he even knows what this word means? Do you think he thinks it is French for "threesome"?) of (1) Lots of Turnovers, (2) Bad Free Throw Shooting, (3) Lack of rebounding. The stats certainly back this up: Turnovers - 20 for the Hoyas, 5 for the cast of Saved by the Bell - the College Years. Freethrows - 8/17 from the free throw line for the Hoyas, 24/30 for '96 Jacksonville Jaguars. Rebounds - slight edge here - 30 for the Hoyas, 28 for the Troy Tulowitzki look alike club, BUT with a 12-7 edge on the offensive glass, in favor of Leave It To Beaver.
Certainly not a recipe for success - BUT - even if you accept all of this as true, it still does not explain the utter collapse of the Hoyas. It's not like all of these factors built up over the course of the game and kept the Macauly Culkins in it until a buzzer beater did us in at the end. To reiterate: THE HOYAS HAD A 17 POINT LEAD IN THE SECOND HALF. Something else went down…..and it was methphysical. Almost as if the good karma of the past two years suddenly, tragically and painfully reversed itself and doomed the Hoyas to defeat.
I personally look to Hibbert. Note - I do not BLAME Roy Hibbert for this or any other loss. To do so would make him more than he is. Hibbert was no more responsible for the Hoyas wins and losses this year than was Mrs. Fenlon. And that statement, I think, is both an exoneration and an indictment of the 2007-2008 Hoyas. Everyone LOOKED to Hibbert. You can't help it - he's 7'2". In some circles, people believed that the Hoyas would go as far as Hibbert would take them. But anyone who watched the team knew better. They knew that Hibbert could become a non-factor, completely disengaged and useless. But DESPITE THIS- the Hoyas had so many other ways to win. So many other leaders, scorers to depend on. A system that was bigger than any one player. A machine that was more than the sum of its parts, with a brain and a lot of heart. But it also had a Big Guy. A classic Gtown center, who sometimes was no more than a mascot. And Roy, in the end, represents that certain missing something of this team. That lurking feeling that, in the end, they were doomed. The seed of doubt, in the back of your mind, that their luck would run out. A seed that grew ever so slightly every time a 6'5" honkey swatted one of Roy's hook shots from the blind side. A feeling that HE….that THEY….just were not up to it.
Roy is the big dude that gets his ass kicked in a bar fight by the obnoxious drunk that isn't afriad to take a swing at him. He's the brother that can't really dance. The dude that goes home on weekends to do his laundry. The college guy that goes to the senior prom.
And that, in the end, is how I will remember this team - Roy's team. A team that disappointed, but, in some strange way, lived up to our very expectations.
Slem,
Great post. I am proud of myself because the thread I started on the officiating is up to its fourth page of comments and has over 3,000 views. I may be the next Obama Girl.
Mort
Posted by: Mort | March 25, 2008 at 06:25 AM
If I may toss a barb beyond what you rightly concluded about Hibbert, I would have to say the disappointment of the season is with the other NBA brat, Jeremiah Rivers. For whatever defensive prowess attributed to Rivers, in the Davidson game his strength became a weakness--Curry blew his doors off. Worse, as the season progressed it was clear Rivers was the worst shooter on the team. He knew it. He was left wide open at the 3-point line and he would fake as though he was an offensive threat and then just pass around the perimeter and move on--usually clogging the lane. Rivers might have contributed more in the NCAAs had he stayed on the defensive end of the floor and just let the Hoyas do a 4-on-5 on offense! That would have least wiped out the 4-point play that began the slide. I think JT III made a mistake by having Rivers be among the first to come off the bench. He needs to earn his minutes from here onwards...
My prediction is Rivers' role next season fades to that of a Tyler Crawford. Sapp, Freeman and Wright are the future, a bright one at that. Add Summers, Macklin and Greg Monroe and that's a strong 6 right there.
And Hibs? 2nd round bound, out of the NBA in 3 unless he becomes a new person. I knew that Hibbert's "I'm a monster" (or animal, whatever) scream during the BE game against WVU was a little premature seeing how he was scoring against the likes of Jamie Smalligan.
Posted by: Emmett Berg | March 25, 2008 at 09:22 AM